Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense hold much promise as they aim for another championship run this Sunday against the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV.
Arik Armstead, George Kittle and Javon Hargrave form an effective pass rush that could slow Mahomes down, yet the 49ers also boast Deebo Samuel as a big play threat and Brandon Aiyuk as a reliable third receiver.
Mahomes
Mahomes is one of the primary reasons the Chiefs have found themselves in this position. He’s allowed them to maneuver the ball effectively against some tough defenses in Chicago and Detroit in both postseason games, moving the ball effectively against formidable competition.
It hasn’t been an ideal season for the 49ers, but they still possess quality defensive pieces that could put together an upset of Patrick Mahomes. A victory could propel them all the way back to Super Bowl contention.
Mahomes has quickly emerged as the NFL’s hottest quarterback, as well as one of its premier performers when the pressure’s on. He ranks second in passer rating on plays that end in sacking or scrambling and excels at getting balls to his receivers when they are open. Furthermore, Mahomes excels at using his legs – tied for most rushing touchdowns this year and second most yards per attempt (rtA).
Shanahan
Shanahan’s offense relies heavily on play sequencing. He enjoys calling plays that set up other plays or concepts later in a drive or game.
At such times, having versatile, dynamic skill position players such as McCaffrey can be invaluable. His speed and route running ability were pivotal to helping the Niners quickly break open a Chiefs defense early and take a 7-3 lead by halftime.
Mahomes and the Chiefs seized advantage of an unfortunate punt and blocked PAT to score three straight touchdowns to open up a 24-7 lead during the third quarter.
Brock Purdy and the 49ers struggled in the second half to stop Patrick Mahomes’ running game and stop him when he appeared sloppy at times, even while playing with an injured elbow for much of the game. They must get their defense back into order and perform more consistently if they hope to compete against similar opponent next time around.
Offense
At this year’s Super Bowl, one of the primary questions surrounding San Francisco is its ability to handle an aggressive pass rush. While they lack depth at this position, Charvarius Ward and Nick Bosa provide two consistent pass rushers who should help.
The Chiefs will use all available strategies – movement, misdirection, quick throws to the perimeter and screens – in order to neutralize both players. Screen plays could prove particularly damaging; their secondary has generated negative EPA during such plays in previous matches against Kansas City.
The Chiefs must protect Kelce against zone coverage. He’s an exceptional talent who understands what the defense is doing and finds open spaces quickly – ranking sixth in DVOA against zone coverage this year and playing tremendously against Baltimore in AFC title game – making this matchup one that could decide this contest; Kansas City’s ability to take shots downfield will also play an integral role.
Defense
It would be difficult to overstate how dominant the 49ers offense has been this season, leading the league in DVOA and opening up an enormous advantage against everyone else. Kyle Shanahan has put together one of his finest offensive units ever with this squad being second only to Atlanta Falcons that made the Super Bowl appearances.
This season has also seen significant improvement on defense for San Francisco, particularly with regard to coverage and on rushes. They currently rank ninth in defensive success rate when playing zone, with Willie Gay, Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal leading an efficient linebacker corps that excels at blitzing.
Spagnuolo’s main challenge will be in his use of blitz packages against Brock Purdy. San Francisco’s dominant run game forced opponents to align with five-man fronts at an unprecedented rate this season; Purdy thrived against them, averaging 11.4 yards per attempt against them while also showing an ability to run through gaps when rushing out of base personnel.
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